Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5359…6b35 other 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,259 (-0%) realized −$1,320 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate27%133W / 365L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,239per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 182d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$36,854
weather 4% −$785
crypto 0% +$14
sports 0% +$13
politics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-56.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 -94.6% -95.1% 4% 1% -94.0%
≤30d 347 -84.7% -86.2% 12% 2% -69.9%
≤90d 401 -67.4% -70.5% 17% 5% -57.6%
all 498 -51.8% -56.4% 27% 6% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.4% 6% -31.9%
10% ← realistic here -60.6% 4% -38.4%
15% -64.4% 3% -44.4%
20% -67.9% 3% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$225 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$795
Realized−$1,320
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses133 / 365
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)498 / 209
History coverage182d
Avg bet$1,239
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 36¢ $49 $191 +$142 (+291%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 23¢ $49 $124 +$75 (+153%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $49 $121 +$72 (+148%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 48¢ $18 $96 +$78 (+428%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $49 $70 +$21 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 34¢ $18 $69 +$51 (+279%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June 20? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $49 $43 −$6 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 36¢ $6 $25 +$19 (+301%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $6 $22 +$15 (+246%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $6 $3 −$4 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $18 $2 −$16 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $1 −$17 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 24°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 23°C or below on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 298 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 104°F or higher on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$26 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 19 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 102-103°F on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $228 52m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 78¢ $227 53m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $251 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $139 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $191 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $136 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $96 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $63 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $130 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $159 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $96 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $67 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 94¢ $140 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $73 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $73 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $80 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $68 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $119 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $794.80 · official $794.82 (match) · 2532 history records