Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5359…7fa2 crypto 338 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$82 (-4%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%183W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$57
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 43% -16.6%
≤30d 253 -18.8% -26.6% 43% 40% -26.6%
≤90d 334 -8.4% -17.1% 54% 47% -15.3%
all 338 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 47% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 47% -15.1%
10% -24.6% 42% -23.2%
15% -31.8% 28% -30.6%
20% -38.5% 8% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses183 / 155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)338 / 338
History coverage105d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 338 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 783 history records