Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
53 0x5356…e8cd world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$9
other 16% +$3
weather 3% +$1
crypto 3% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.7% -10.1% 42% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 24 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 0% -8.7%
all 36 +1.4% -8.2% 61% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -8.5%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.77 per $1 lost it wins $10.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage470d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 77¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $55 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $29 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -13%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $52 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $95 +$7 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $45 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $65 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $18 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 25? Mar 27 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $17 $0 +2%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 23 $17 $0 +1%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $17 $0 +0%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brad Garlinghouse attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 11 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $55 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $18 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $11 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $55 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $46 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $55 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $34 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records