Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
53 0x5355…3ac1 weather 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% +$6
sports 34% −$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 3 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 7 +1.4% -8.3% 86% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.71 per $1 lost it wins $5.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage522d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $494 $497 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? May 06 $1 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jan 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $510 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.03 · official $497.03 (match) · 18 history records