Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5351…9b3c sports 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$114,234 (+15%) realized +$114,535 · open −$301
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%45W / 47L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,781per market
Trades / day68.8pace
Fees−$5,077est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$33,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$22,600
other 46% +$24,640
world 1% −$6,813
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.4% -23.5% 40% 27% -35.3%
≤30d 44 -3.8% -13.0% 43% 36% -12.7%
≤90d 92 +2.7% -7.1% 49% 41% -4.5%
all 92 +2.7% -7.1% 49% 41% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 41% -4.5%
10% -16.0% 37% -13.6%
15% ← realistic here -24.1% 30% -22.0%
20% -31.5% 28% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$13,800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
30.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,301 vs −$5,166 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$33,157
Realized+$114,535
Unrealized−$301
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses45 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$5,077
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 98
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$7,781
Trades / day68.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 95¢ $33,434 $33,136 −$298 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 16¢ 32¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+94%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10,850 +$24,150 +223%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $496 −$4 -1%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $26,983 +$9,980 +37%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26,607 +$8,366 +31%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,134 +$752 +24%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $24,951 −$24,951 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31,614 +$2,380 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $23,408 −$23,408 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26,257 −$26,257 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10,800 −$8,576 -79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24,126 −$24,126 -100%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 14 $106 −$7 -6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,523 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4,284 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13,800 +$16,200 +117%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,494 +$397 +27%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-16? Jun 11 $1,849 −$1,849 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 11 $10,200 −$5,561 -54%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? Jun 11 $6,229 −$6,229 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 11 $15,300 −$7,271 -48%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 11 $10,072 −$10,072 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? Jun 11 $5,801 −$3,901 -67%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? Jun 11 $14,401 −$14,349 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? Jun 11 $18,491 −$18,491 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $2,175 −$46 -2%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $16,626 +$12,566 +76%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $4,266 −$243 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $18,452 +$12,233 +66%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $1,613 +$403 +25%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $6,196 +$4,868 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $425 +$7 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 27 $10,400 −$536 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $20,073 +$10,797 +54%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $15,510 +$14,901 +96%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 25 $253 +$142 +56%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $12,300 +$13,343 +108%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10,200 +$19,800 +194%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $15,860 +$8,677 +55%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $458 −$404 -88%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $11,843 +$17,498 +148%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5,092 +$829 +16%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $19,063 +$5,351 +28%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 17 $7 +$3 +44%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 17 $8 +$5 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 20¢ $2 5m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 12¢ $1 6m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in BUY 21¢ $5 49m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $44 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $30,266 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $207 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $179 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $207 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $207 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $1,595 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $41 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $187 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $104 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $31 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $36 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $104 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $173 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $21 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $32 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $492 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $0 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $64 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $4 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $160 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $9 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $36 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $159 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $2 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $449 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 31¢ $160 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,156.73 · official $33,156.73 (match) · 3500 history records