Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5351…c7ed crypto 421 markets active 1h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,707 (-4%) realized −$3,197 · open −$1,510
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate62%250W / 155L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8,254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,489
7 days−$1,578
14 days−$2,756
30 days−$3,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$3,517
finance 16% +$1,362
crypto 16% −$1,573
world 13% +$1,653
tech 8% −$930
politics 7% −$847
sports 6% −$1,016
economics 3% −$1,119
culture 0% +$27
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 21% -22.3%
≤30d 64 -17.4% -25.3% 47% 20% -22.6%
≤90d 257 -11.0% -19.4% 58% 27% -13.7%
all 405 -8.4% -17.1% 62% 32% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 32% -13.7%
10% -25.1% 20% -21.9%
15% -32.3% 12% -29.5%
20% -38.9% 8% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$100 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$8,254
Realized−$3,197
Unrealized−$1,510
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses250 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions16
Markets (closed)405 / 421
History coverage363d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1,668 $1,670 +$3 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $928 $941 +$13 (+1%)
Waymo IPO before 2027? No 86¢ 95¢ $776 $857 +$81 (+10%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 91¢ $693 $788 +$95 (+14%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 48¢ 19¢ $1,730 $692 −$1,038 (-60%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 78¢ $552 $558 +$6 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $580 $527 −$53 (-9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $434 $436 +$3 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes $913 $417 −$496 (-54%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No 46¢ 33¢ $401 $286 −$115 (-29%)
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $266 $265 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 70¢ $257 $239 −$18 (-7%)
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $166 $179 +$13 (+8%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $441 −$130 -29%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,409 −$449 -32%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $367 −$228 -62%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 18 $837 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,313 −$786 -60%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 17 $856 +$8 +1%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $1,301 +$94 +7%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $127 $0 +0%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 16 $395 +$55 +14%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 16 $477 +$288 +60%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $494 −$78 -16%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 15 $84 −$2 -2%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $447 +$25 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 15 $81 +$51 +63%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 15 $52 −$12 -23%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? Jun 14 $116 +$3 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $250 +$203 +81%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $333 +$38 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $414 +$32 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $466 −$455 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $33 −$27 -83%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $443 −$207 -47%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $461 −$5 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $147 −$144 -98%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 10 $717 −$709 -99%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $72 −$71 -99%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $628 −$13 -2%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 10 $502 +$2 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $263 −$183 -70%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $101 −$36 -35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,090 −$177 -8%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 02 $485 +$41 +8%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $687 −$546 -80%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $1,133 +$98 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $475 +$111 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $46 +$13 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $400 −$13 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $400 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 29 $27 +$4 +14%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $2,191 −$691 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 28 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 27 $824 −$15 -2%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 27 $468 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? May 27 $1,764 +$199 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 26 $327 +$64 +20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $80 +$70 +88%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 26 $271 +$23 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $362 −$14 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 11¢ $312 1h
New pandemic in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $300 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $259 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $139 1h
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $821 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $50 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $100 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $30 34h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $864 34h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $7 36h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $14 37h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $21 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $30 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $10 38h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $125 41h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $2 41h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $56 41h
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 97¢ $88 44h
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 97¢ $394 44h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $53 2d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $274 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $30 2d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $60 2d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $6 2d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,253.52 · official $8,253.52 (match) · 3330 history records