Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

53 0x5350…2002 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day13.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-42.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-36.8%	-42.8%	33%	33%	-37.2%
≤30d	3	-36.8%	-42.8%	33%	33%	-37.2%
≤90d	3	-36.8%	-42.8%	33%	33%	-37.2%
all	3	-36.8%	-42.8%	33%	33%	-37.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.8%	33%	-37.2%
10%	-48.3%	33%	-43.3%
15%	-53.3%	33%	-48.7%
20%	-57.9%	33%	-53.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -44% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$29 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$96

Realized+$11

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day13.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	48¢	$104	$96	−$8 (-7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$60	−$40	-67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$30	+$22	+73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$20	−$17	-83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	26¢	$1	6m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	27¢	$1	7m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$30	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$17	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	18¢	$31	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	30¢	$18	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	39¢	$8	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$9	22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$58	22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$53	23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	10¢	$3	24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.46 · official $96.40 (match) · 15 history records