Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x534d…f4e4 crypto 1564 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$668 (-1%) realized −$668 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%1489W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$105
14 days−$236
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -1.1% -10.5% 90% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 614 +1.3% -8.3% 94% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 1564 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 1% -9.7%
all 1564 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 1% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$668
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1489 / 75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1564 / 1564
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$74
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1564 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$52 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$50 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $46 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $49 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $28 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $35 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.91 · official $50.05 · 3500 history records