Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:14:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x534b…983f sports 818 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,068 (-6%) realized −$4,156 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%262W / 551L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$430est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$119
14 days−$206
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$4,281
other 6% +$304
world 4% −$324
crypto 2% +$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +80.9% +63.7% 23% 18% -21.7%
≤30d 75 +16.6% +5.5% 19% 17% -10.8%
≤90d 628 -10.1% -18.7% 23% 21% -28.6%
all 813 +5.5% -4.6% 32% 30% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 30% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 27% -24.0%
15% -22.0% 23% -31.4%
20% -29.7% 20% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$31 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized−$4,156
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses262 / 551
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$430
Open positions5
Markets (closed)813 / 818
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $107 $184 +$78 (+72%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $152 $136 −$16 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $28 $38 +$10 (+37%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $22 $38 +$16 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$61 +661%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $135 −$133 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $115 −$31 -27%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $55 −$6 -12%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $36 −$7 -19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $55 −$8 -15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $60 −$22 -37%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 +$34 +103%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $296 +$15 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$16 +259%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$47 +1519%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$21 +357%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 −$7 -42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $24 +$31 +131%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $59 −$30 -51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $52 −$26 -50%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $29 −$7 -23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $207 +$44 +21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $113 +$63 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $140 +$23 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $15 +$15 +98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $61 −$2 -3%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $58 +$239 +412%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $65 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $132 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 71¢ $70 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 9¢ $9 2d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 1¢ $1 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 1¢ $1 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 4¢ $4 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 6¢ $6 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 16¢ $16 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $28 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $28 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $51 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $85 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $115 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 49¢ $48 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 29¢ $1 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 29¢ $18 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 29¢ $10 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $38 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $8 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $36 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $55 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 2¢ $1 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 5¢ $1 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 6¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.25 · official $460.25 (match) · 3500 history records