Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5349…8fbb
other · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$19 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$36
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 2 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 50¢ 50¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 15¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$15 +123%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $39 −$19 -49%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +152%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% −$20
sports 43% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $26 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 100¢ $12 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $19 12h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $5 20h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 59¢ $5 21h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $5 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 22h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $19 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.2% -16.9% 43% 43% -34.9%
≤30d 7 -8.2% -16.9% 43% 43% -34.9%
≤90d 7 -8.2% -16.9% 43% 43% -34.9%
all 7 -8.2% -16.9% 43% 43% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 43% -34.9%
10% -24.9% 43% -41.1%
15% -32.1% 43% -46.8%
20% -38.8% 43% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.90 · official $35.90 (match) · 19 history records