Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
53 0x5346…7730 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$42 (+12%) realized +$59 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$69
other 31% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 38% +15.7%
≤30d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 38% +15.7%
≤90d 8 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 38% +15.7%
all 8 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 38% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 38% +15.7%
10% -9.1% 38% +4.6%
15% -17.9% 38% -5.5%
20% -25.9% 38% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$8 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.67 per $1 lost it wins $4.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 32¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$41 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$29 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$37 +73%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $102 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $10 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $41 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $40 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $64 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.76 · official $22.76 (match) · 20 history records