Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x533b…0a9e other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-37%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%4W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$10
crypto 24% −$51
sports 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.6% -15.5% 17% 17% -32.0%
≤30d 23 -6.6% -15.5% 17% 17% -32.0%
≤90d 23 -6.6% -15.5% 17% 17% -32.0%
all 23 -6.6% -15.5% 17% 17% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 17% -32.0%
10% -23.6% 17% -38.5%
15% -31.0% 17% -44.5%
20% -37.7% 17% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$9 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses4 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$33 +280%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $6 +$47 +800%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$21 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +605%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 20h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 20h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $26 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $34 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 29h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 32h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 32h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.96 · official $2.96 (match) · 65 history records