Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5339…9da3
sports · 586 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$45,812 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24,456 · open −$63
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,802
Realized−$24,456
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses378 / 566
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,123
Open positions13
Markets (closed)944 / 586
History coverage29d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day117.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 13 History 944 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25,784
7 days−$25,846
14 days−$26,429
30 days−$24,456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $1,500 $1,499 −$1 (-0%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Diane Parry 95¢ 93¢ $700 $685 −$15 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 74¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 87¢ 86¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 84¢ 84¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Katerina Siniakova 89¢ 86¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 62¢ 55¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-89%)
Pro Football: Will OBJ sign with a team in 2026? Yes 21¢ 69¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+227%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Brunclik vs. Faria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 74¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Arnaboldi vs. Caniato: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 79¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? No 41¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 72¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 78¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Sebov vs. Hruncakova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 69¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Cerundolo vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 83¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Luka Pavlovic vs. Harry Wendelken: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 65¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jodar 91¢ 0¢ $800 $0 −$800 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Dino Prizmic 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 77¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Jong vs Zverev Jong 79¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brunclik vs. Faria: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $360 −$360 -100%
Cerundolo vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Lokoli vs. Gomez: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV publish his encyclical by May 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Jiujiang: Sho Shimabukuro vs Keegan Smith Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Aix en Provence: Rinky Hijikata vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $229 −$229 -100%
Ruud vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Keys vs. Rakotomanga: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Piros vs Forejtek Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Adolfo Vallejo vs. Jaume Munar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Cerundolo vs. Blockx: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $220 −$220 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 14 $36 −$21 -59%
Will Comey insult Trump by Friday? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 30? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bengaluru 2: Joshua Charlton vs Ognjen Milic Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Magic (-7.5) Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5 Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Crystal Palace: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$2,662
crypto 11% −$1,465
other 8% −$970
world 0% −$330
politics 0% −$87
tech 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,502 11m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Katerina Siniakova 89¢ $100 33m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston SELL Antonia Ruzic 94¢ $936 35m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 67¢ $10 38m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 57¢ $101 40m
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu SELL Yunchaokete Bu 96¢ $428 41m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 69¢ $20 41m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 42m
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 74¢ $101 43m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 67¢ $101 43m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $101 44m
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 70¢ $20 46m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 85¢ $100 47m
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $30 47m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $101 48m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $101 48m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $201 48m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 77¢ $101 49m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 79¢ $302 49m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 95¢ $701 50m
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 71¢ $202 50m
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 99¢ $1,197 52m
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron SELL Rinky Hijikata 98¢ $633 54m
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL David Jorda Sanchis 99¢ $74 54m
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL David Jorda Sanchis 99¢ $758 54m
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 83¢ $19 55m
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 71¢ $303 56m
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 71¢ $101 57m
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 84¢ $402 58m
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 68¢ $101 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 417 -77.2% -79.4% 6% 6% -73.8%
≤30d 944 -32.2% -38.6% 40% 36% -25.4%
≤90d 944 -32.2% -38.6% 40% 36% -25.4%
all 944 -32.2% -38.6% 40% 36% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover117.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.6% 36% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -44.5% 28% -32.5%
15% -49.9% 18% -39.0%
20% -54.8% 10% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,801.53 · official $3,801.53 (match) · 3500 history records