Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5337…329a crypto 1539 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$231 (-0%) realized −$216 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%1454W / 125L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$888
7 days−$911
14 days−$1,035
30 days−$980
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$207
world 21% −$178
sports 6% +$280
other 3% −$158
politics 2% −$2
tech 1% −$70
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -67.1% -70.2% 3% 0% -16.3%
≤30d 105 -40.7% -46.4% 6% 1% -12.9%
≤90d 1579 -3.0% -12.3% 92% 0% -11.0%
all 1579 -3.0% -12.3% 92% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 0% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 0% -19.5%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1454 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1579 / 1539
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1579 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 80¢ $176 $161 −$15 (-9%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 75¢ 70¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$26 -138%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$22 -379%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $368 −$1 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $89 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 16 $125 −$22 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $336 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $2,859 −$64 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $176 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 65¢ $201 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 65¢ $202 4h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 4h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $105 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $105 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $367 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $368 24h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $89 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $103 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $33 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $9 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $10 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $6 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $125 39h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $89 42h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $148 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 44h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $196 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 48¢ $145 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 48¢ $145 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $111 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.27 · official $161.00 (match) · 3500 history records