Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5333…df0d sports 190 markets active 9h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-6%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%81W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$45
other 21% −$41
weather 14% −$15
politics 12% −$13
world 6% +$11
culture 4% +$2
finance 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 34 -1.9% -11.3% 56% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 132 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 7% -15.7%
all 190 -6.9% -15.7% 43% 7% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 7% -15.3%
10% -23.8% 4% -23.4%
15% -31.2% 2% -30.8%
20% -37.9% 1% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses81 / 109
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage98d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $7 +$1 +7%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $8 −$1 -10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $7 −$1 -12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $10 −$1 -6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $10 −$1 -11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $21 −$12 -55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $8 $0 +5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $9 −$1 -10%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $9 +$1 +6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $9 −$1 -10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $6 −$1 -10%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $9 $0 +5%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $9 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $11 −$2 -16%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 27 $9 $0 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $7 $0 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $7 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 $0 -3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $8 $0 +5%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 $0 -6%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10 $0 +3%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 17 $5 $0 +5%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 17 $5 $0 +6%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $4 $0 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $5 $0 +5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 13 $5 $0 +5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 13 $5 −$1 -11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $5 $0 -4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals May 11 $5 $0 -6%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 09 $5 −$1 -12%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals May 07 $5 $0 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 06 $5 $0 -8%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $5 −$1 -12%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 $0 -7%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $9 +$1 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 03 $9 $0 +5%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $9 −$3 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 96¢ $7 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 91¢ $7 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 93¢ $7 10h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 98¢ $7 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 93¢ $7 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 95¢ $7 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $7 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 93¢ $7 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 93¢ $7 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Minnesota Twins 92¢ $7 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 91¢ $7 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Philadelphia Phillies 91¢ $5 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 93¢ $7 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 78¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 79¢ $10 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 79¢ $7 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 87¢ $8 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 81¢ $6 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 91¢ $7 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 84¢ $9 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 89¢ $10 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Philadelphia Phillies 95¢ $10 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 90¢ $9 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 87¢ $9 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 92¢ $10 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 83¢ $9 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 93¢ $10 14d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 3¢ $0 15d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 81¢ $9 15d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 93¢ $11 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 673 history records