Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5331…3672 sports 811 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$26 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%364W / 430L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$236est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$323
14 days−$82
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$2,093
crypto 16% +$2,368
weather 11% −$406
other 5% −$196
politics 0% +$1
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +42.7% +29.1% 50% 50% -0.0%
≤30d 495 -2.0% -11.3% 46% 45% -10.7%
≤90d 794 -4.0% -13.2% 46% 45% -10.6%
all 794 -4.0% -13.2% 46% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 45% -10.6%
10% -21.5% 44% -19.2%
15% -29.1% 40% -27.0%
20% -36.0% 36% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$25 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses364 / 430
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions17
Markets (closed)794 / 811
History coverage56d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? No 44¢ 38¢ $112 $98 −$14 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? No 36¢ 36¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? No 82¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 65¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 21¢ 21¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bad Bunny perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 27 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $33 −$31 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $109 −$105 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,392 +$171 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $104 −$102 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$5 +360%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $51 +$188 +372%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $28 +$118 +422%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 23 $4 $0 -6%
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027? Jun 23 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $318 +$140 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $355 +$79 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Jun 23 $27 +$85 +312%
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 23 $17 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -96%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 21 $198 +$192 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 21 $186 −$184 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N Jun 21 $155 −$153 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $72 −$69 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $208 +$246 +119%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $161 −$43 -27%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $35 −$34 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $33 +$37 +114%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $28 −$27 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $19 −$18 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $73 +$35 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $199 +$908 +456%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $147 +$807 +551%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $131 +$63 +48%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $59 +$35 +60%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $184 +$164 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $28 +$43 +152%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $192 +$72 +38%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 20 $167 +$183 +109%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $122 −$116 -95%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 19 $247 −$244 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $87 −$86 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N Jun 19 $116 −$114 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 36¢ $82 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 44¢ $117 3h
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $8 13h
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 23h
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $7 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 45¢ $33 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 47¢ $109 27h
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $8 28h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 21¢ $2 31h
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 33h
Will Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 75¢ $104 39h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 52¢ $5 42h
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 42h
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42h
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 42h
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,392 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 18¢ $28 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2 BUY No 84¢ $8 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 17¢ $4 4d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 50¢ $12 4d
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $15 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 SELL Yes 71¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.71 · official $242.78 · 1658 history records