Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
53 0x5329…3e3d weather 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$63 (+29%) realized +$53 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +39.2% +25.9% 41% 34% +19.2%
≤30d 41 +39.2% +25.9% 41% 34% +19.2%
≤90d 41 +39.2% +25.9% 41% 34% +19.2%
all 41 +39.2% +25.9% 41% 34% +19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.9% 34% +19.2%
10% ← realistic here +13.9% 29% +7.8%
15% +2.9% 24% -2.6%
20% -7.2% 22% -12.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Open positions12
Markets (closed)41 / 53
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? No 78¢ 100¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 19? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 19? Yes 32¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +417%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$6 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$28 +904%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +654%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 3¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 43¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 93¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.05 · official $66.05 (match) · 147 history records