Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5325…1fcf politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%3W / 30L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$8
sports 24% −$2
crypto 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 33 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$594) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses3 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage86d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $203 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $306 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $204 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $102 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $728 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $727 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $108 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 06 $108 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $594 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $619 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 31 $619 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $621 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $100 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $100 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $100 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $101 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $101 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $101 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 24d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 24d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 27d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 27d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $102 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $102 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.95 · official $100.95 (match) · 181 history records