Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5324…775f crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$31
sports 1% +$7
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 50% -16.3%
≤30d 24 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 50% -16.3%
≤90d 24 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 50% -16.3%
all 24 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 50% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 50% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 38% -24.3%
15% -28.0% 25% -31.6%
20% -35.1% 17% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 15m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 16m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records