Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

53 0x5323…326a sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$107 (+6%) realized +$138 · open −$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate52%14W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day16.1pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-6.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+3.5%	-6.3%	52%	48%	-3.7%
≤30d	27	+3.5%	-6.3%	52%	48%	-3.7%
≤90d	27	+3.5%	-6.3%	52%	48%	-3.7%
all	27	+3.5%	-6.3%	52%	48%	-3.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.3%	48%	-3.7%
10%	-15.3%	48%	-12.9%
15%	-23.5%	48%	-21.4%
20%	-31.0%	48%	-29.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late -1% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$48 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.17 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$124

Realized+$138

Unrealized−$31

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses14 / 13

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage3d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day16.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	30¢	30¢	$75	$76	+$1 (+2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Over	49¢	29¢	$80	$47	−$33 (-41%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	Jun 19	$76	+$80	+105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$76	+$65	+86%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$81	−$80	-98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se	Jun 19	$76	+$57	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$26	+101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$23	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$82	−$55	-66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$81	+$93	+114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$89	+$68	+76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$89	−$88	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 18	$26	−$25	-96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$77	+$72	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 18	$25	+$3	+10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$70	+$73	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$24	+93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$77	−$76	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$98	−$52	-53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?	Jun 17	$51	+$63	+124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$51	+$49	+97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$48	+$35	+73%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$43	−$42	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 16	$207	−$58	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 16	$52	−$50	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	SELL Over	100¢	$156	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$81	2h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	BUY Over	48¢	$76	3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL Spirit	100¢	$141	3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	49¢	$81	5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	53¢	$76	8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se	BUY KOLESIE	57¢	$76	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$26	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$26	17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	SELL No	16¢	$6	17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	SELL No	17¢	$3	17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	SELL No	16¢	$3	17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	SELL No	18¢	$9	17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	SELL No	32¢	$6	18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	BUY No	55¢	$53	19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	BUY No	52¢	$2	20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	BUY No	52¢	$5	20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	BUY No	52¢	$1	20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?	BUY No	52¢	$21	20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	30¢	$74	28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	30¢	$1	28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	46¢	$81	29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$89	31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	52¢	$89	32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$77	44h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.60 · official $126.04 · 62 history records