Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5320…f3b2 crypto 756 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,946 (+16%) realized +$16,946 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%414W / 506L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day92.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,149
culture 0% −$4
other 0% −$13
economics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$52
politics 0% −$12
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 309 -50.6% -55.3% 23% 22% -88.9%
≤30d 772 -21.8% -29.2% 44% 33% -35.0%
≤90d 920 -15.2% -23.2% 45% 35% -26.6%
all 920 -15.2% -23.2% 45% 35% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 35% -26.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 31% -33.6%
15% -37.3% 28% -40.0%
20% -43.4% 25% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$124 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16,946
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses414 / 506
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)920 / 756
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day92.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 920 Trades
no open positions (452 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $200 −$207 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $63 −$38 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $115 −$58 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $39 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $20 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records