Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x531f…34a7 sports 248 markets active 3d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,001 (-7%) realized −$1,001 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%154W / 94L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$731
14 days−$701
30 days−$1,068
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$834
politics 12% −$58
crypto 4% −$104
other 3% −$75
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -11.4% -19.8% 42% 32% -19.8%
≤30d 248 -8.8% -17.5% 62% 47% -14.4%
≤90d 248 -8.8% -17.5% 62% 47% -14.4%
all 248 -8.8% -17.5% 62% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 47% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 28% -22.6%
15% -32.6% 17% -30.1%
20% -39.2% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$22 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,001
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses154 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage26d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 −$12 -35%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $15 −$1 -3%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $21 −$2 -7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 +$4 +71%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $184 +$9 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 −$6 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 −$2 -24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $187 −$11 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $78 +$21 +27%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 $0 -13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $23 +$7 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $25 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $52 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $86 −$3 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $55 +$4 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $75 +$15 +20%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +307%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $109 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $63 +$15 +25%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 11 $170 −$35 -21%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $738 −$19 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $8 −$4 -49%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,249 −$617 -49%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $122 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $50 −$2 -3%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $15 −$2 -13%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $111 +$12 +11%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $424 +$30 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 67¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 20¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 58¢ $15 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind SELL Bigetron by Vitality 83¢ $15 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 85¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 42¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $6 3d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $1 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $7 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 77¢ $60 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 82¢ $50 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $8 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 92¢ $9 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 87¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $105 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 24¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 13¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 17¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 19¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 27¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 43¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 57¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 94¢ $99 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 77¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 82¢ $89 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 703 history records