Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x531e…b1fe crypto 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (358 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$189 (-1%) realized −$189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%156W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day358.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (358 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 179 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 179 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 0% -10.5%
all 179 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover358.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 0% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses156 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage1d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day358.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $44 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $44 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $44 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $46 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $46 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $46 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $38 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $38 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.00 · official $44.00 (match) · 561 history records