Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5318…5f15 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$66 (-29%) realized −$62 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$63
finance 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -51.7% -56.3% 31% 15% -50.5%
≤30d 13 -51.7% -56.3% 31% 15% -50.5%
≤90d 13 -51.7% -56.3% 31% 15% -50.5%
all 13 -51.7% -56.3% 31% 15% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.3% 15% -50.5%
10% ← realistic here -60.5% 15% -55.2%
15% -64.3% 15% -59.6%
20% -67.8% 8% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Up 7¢ 9¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Up 14¢ 10¢ $26 $19 −$6 (-25%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $20 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $19 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $30 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 12m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 15m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 6¢ $5 17m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 14¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 7¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.51 · official $67.55 (match) · 24 history records