Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5317…89fa other 256 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$44
sports 21% −$22
politics 8% −$8
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$8
world 3% −$3
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage136d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $196 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $368 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $523 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $394 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $250 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $289 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $55 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $438 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $394 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $449 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $318 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $660 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $177 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $598 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $933 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $123 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2m
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 3h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 5h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $53 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $53 13h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 15h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 17h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 19h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 20h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 21h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 23h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 25h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 28h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 30h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $54 30h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 31h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 34h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 37h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 38h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 40h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 42h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $54 43h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $54 44h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $54 46h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $54 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1423 history records