Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5316…0906 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$634 (+12%) realized +$690 · open −$56
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$355
7 days+$434
14 days+$434
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$472
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +35.4% +22.5% 100% 100% +14.8%
≤30d 14 +7.4% -2.8% 64% 50% +0.7%
≤90d 16 +6.3% -3.9% 56% 44% +0.4%
all 16 +6.3% -3.9% 56% 44% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 44% +0.4%
10% -13.1% 19% -9.2%
15% -21.5% 6% -18.0%
20% -29.2% 6% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$41 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized+$690
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage37d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $431 $395 −$35 (-8%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $241 $220 −$21 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $711 +$168 +24%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $171 +$148 +87%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $301 +$38 +13%
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 12 $433 +$79 +18%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? May 29 $837 −$67 -8%
XMAQUINA FDV above $80M one day after launch? May 28 $229 +$39 +17%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $377 −$11 -3%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $638 +$200 +31%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $415 +$80 +19%
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $76 −$30 -39%
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $207 −$134 -65%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $209 +$18 +9%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 20 $55 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 19 $29 −$1 -2%
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 19 $81 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $195 1h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $305 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 1h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $35 1h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $35 1h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 1h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $319 22h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 34h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $152 34h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $27 34h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 49¢ $38 34h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 49¢ $64 35h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 75¢ $64 35h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 50¢ $39 35h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $127 35h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 36h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $138 36h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 36h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $340 36h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $193 37h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 53¢ $90 42h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 53¢ $103 42h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $41 2d
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $261 2d
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? SELL No 91¢ $57 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $615.85 · official $615.85 (match) · 270 history records