Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x530f…424e
sports · 134 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$186 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$87 · open −$274
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$773
Realized+$87
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses35 / 54
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions45
Markets (closed)89 / 134
History coverage170d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 45 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$227
14 days−$294
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 53¢ 32¢ $277 $169 −$108 (-39%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 78¢ 37¢ $279 $133 −$146 (-52%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $51 $61 +$9 (+18%)
Will the fight be won by submission? No 81¢ 86¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 76¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-4%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 84¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ 52¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $42 $25 −$17 (-40%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 74¢ 70¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 70¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? No 55¢ 64¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 48¢ 64¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+32%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 40¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 25¢ 25¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $12 $13 +$2 (+13%)
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 44¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 58¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 38¢ 37¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 38¢ 38¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 90¢ 80¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Yes 53¢ 59¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 39¢ 34¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 46¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +216%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $12 +$64 +554%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$4 +365%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 +$2 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $12 −$2 -13%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $75 +$74 +98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Ketel Marte: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 +$2 +21%
Vinnie Pasquantino: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 +$3 +40%
Corbin Carroll: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Kyle Tucker: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1521%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$13 +101%
Cap Cana: Nicolas Mejia vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs. Texas Southern Tigers Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 231.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Strawweigh Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix: Blaise Bicknell vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. William & Mary Tribe (W) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Bi Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win ESL Pro League Season 23? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 9? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Reminders of Him" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomat Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 9? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. UT Arlington Mavericks Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Gunnar Henderson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +172%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -8%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2 +$4 +146%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $13 +$7 +53%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Jun 10 $13 −$6 -46%
Spread: Angola (-1.5) Jun 09 $14 +$15 +115%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $224 −$7 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 32% −$78
weather 21% +$188
tech 16% +$30
other 13% −$37
world 10% −$256
politics 5% −$33
economics 2% −$3
crypto 0% +$14
finance 0% −$4
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 90¢ $12 4m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 8m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 8m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 8m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 8m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 8m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 9m
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 54¢ $3 25m
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 58¢ $3 51m
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 58¢ $3 51m
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 58¢ $3 51m
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 58¢ $3 52m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 52m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 53m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 53m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 53m
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $6 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +9.2% -1.2% 33% 33% -32.3%
≤30d 69 +9.8% -0.7% 33% 33% -18.0%
≤90d 74 +6.9% -3.3% 35% 34% -17.7%
all 89 +9.1% -1.2% 39% 38% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 38% -7.9%
10% -10.7% 29% -16.7%
15% -19.3% 22% -24.8%
20% -27.2% 18% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $773.36 · official $773.36 (match) · 632 history records