Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x530e…15e9 crypto 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$437 (+6%) realized +$436 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%161W / 97L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$45
14 days+$30
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$296
other 1% −$22
world 1% +$22
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -6.2% -15.1% 69% 45% -6.5%
≤30d 221 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 43% -9.7%
≤90d 258 -8.6% -17.3% 62% 43% -5.5%
all 258 -8.6% -17.3% 62% 43% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 43% -5.5%
10% -25.2% 32% -14.6%
15% -32.4% 22% -22.8%
20% -39.1% 13% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$436
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses161 / 97
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage58d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$5 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -85%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$13 +71%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$4 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$7 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $29 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.52 · official $20.52 (match) · 1259 history records