Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x530d…0af1 crypto 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$191 (+2%) realized +$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%51W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,738
other 1% −$31
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 43% -48.3%
≤30d 7 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 43% -48.3%
≤90d 152 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 31% -27.8%
all 152 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 31% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 31% -27.8%
10% -23.4% 26% -34.7%
15% -30.8% 25% -41.0%
20% -37.6% 20% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$41 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses51 / 101
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage43d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $1,067 −$1,067 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $388 +$679 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $1,727 −$1,111 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 09 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 09 $558 −$558 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 09 $534 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 09 $481 +$83 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 09 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 09 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 09 $533 −$25 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 09 $31 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 09 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 09 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 09 $57 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 09 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 09 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 09 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 09 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 09 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 09 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 09 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 09 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 09 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 09 $42 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 09 $192 +$74 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 09 $108 −$48 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $114 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 09 $164 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 09 $9 −$9 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $734 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $329 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $891 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $315 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $254 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $173 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $348 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $18 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $558 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $574 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $534 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $455 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $34 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $41 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 382 history records