Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:55:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
53 0x530c…3453 crypto 128 markets active 2d ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,997 (+15%) realized +$3,997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate94%119W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$11
crypto 24% −$15
world 11% +$8
sports 10% +$3,980
politics 4% +$6
finance 4% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 39 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 126 -1.8% -11.1% 94% 5% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 5% +4.3%
10% -19.6% 3% -5.7%
15% -27.4% 2% -14.8%
20% -34.5% 1% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$34 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×17.7 per $1 lost it wins $17.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$1,110
Realized+$3,997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses119 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage211d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,100 $1,101 +$1 (+0%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of Jun 06 $158 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Jun 06 $176 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Jun 06 $320 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $470 +$2 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th Jun 01 $155 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 01 $500 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 01 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $500 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 24 $970 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $190 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 18 $185 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 16 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading May 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $2.50? May 16 $172 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $7.50? May 16 $204 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading May 16 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 11 $156 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $154 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading May 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the May 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 30 $158 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Apr 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 28 $98 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 17 $146 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $155 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $155 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 26 $150 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Mar 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Mar 21 $220 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Mar 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 12 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $125 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $50 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Fe Feb 26 $290 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 Feb 26 $900 +$1 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 25 $58 −$46 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $1,100 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $470 16d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $320 16d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $158 16d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $176 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 25 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 19d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 19d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $177 22d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 22d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $288 22d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 24d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $155 24d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 24d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 30d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 30d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $970 31d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 100¢ $600 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 34d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, BUY No 100¢ $185 34d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 100¢ $100 34d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $172 34d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $300 34d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $204 34d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 36d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $97 36d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $156 40d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $154 43d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $70 47d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 100¢ $88 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,110.25 · official $1,110.25 (match) · 321 history records