Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x530b…66d3 crypto 1180 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$374 (+1%) realized +$374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate91%1072W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$26
14 days+$69
30 days+$487
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +0.5% -9.0% 94% 8% -8.1%
≤30d 251 +3.2% -6.7% 96% 13% -5.6%
≤90d 306 +1.8% -7.9% 94% 13% -5.8%
all 1180 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 14% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 14% -8.7%
10% -17.9% 4% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1072 / 108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1180 / 1180
History coverage170d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1180 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $70 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $69 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $70 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $63 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $59 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $48 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $45 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $41 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $37 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $34 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $32 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $23 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 3051 history records