Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
53 0x530a…a9f0 world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3 (+11%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% +$4
world 37% −$2
crypto 11% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +45.8% +31.9% 50% 50% +35.3%
all 6 +45.8% +31.9% 50% 50% +35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.9% 50% +35.3%
10% +19.3% 50% +22.3%
15% +7.8% 33% +10.5%
20% -2.8% 33% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage69d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 44¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 77¢ 64¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 12 $1 +$5 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.83 · official $20.83 (match) · 13 history records