Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
53 0x5309…1347 tech 339 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,522 (+3%) realized +$1,492 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate85%286W / 52L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days−$129
14 days−$447
30 days−$830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 56% +$1,808
other 34% −$30
sports 10% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.4% -2.8% 89% 78% -13.3%
≤30d 82 -7.3% -16.2% 78% 62% -13.6%
≤90d 338 +2.5% -7.2% 85% 62% -6.7%
all 338 +2.5% -7.2% 85% 62% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 62% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 17% -15.6%
15% -24.2% 2% -23.8%
20% -31.6% 1% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$125 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$1,492
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses286 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)338 / 339
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$177
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 23? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $167 $196 +$30 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $333 +$37 +11%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $23 +$2 +10%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $480 +$100 +21%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $572 +$124 +22%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $191 +$35 +18%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 18? Jun 18 $303 +$40 +13%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $190 +$45 +24%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $784 −$550 -70%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 17? Jun 17 $202 +$38 +19%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? Jun 12 $240 +$39 +16%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? Jun 12 $271 +$45 +17%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 12? Jun 12 $481 +$92 +19%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$2 +10%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $723 +$156 +22%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $405? Jun 12 $481 −$481 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 11? Jun 11 $226 +$23 +10%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $225 +$34 +15%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 11? Jun 11 $225 +$25 +11%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $676 +$102 +15%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $216 +$41 +19%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 10? Jun 10 $216 +$38 +18%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 +$9 +17%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $124 +$13 +11%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $35 +$3 +8%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $214 +$26 +12%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 8? Jun 09 $201 +$31 +16%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $58 +$6 +10%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $601 +$101 +17%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $254 +$26 +10%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $575 +$61 +11%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 5? Jun 05 $191 +$28 +15%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +10%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $310? Jun 05 $195 +$22 +11%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $187 +$32 +17%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $186 +$18 +10%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $21 +$4 +17%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $209 +$28 +13%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $383 +$82 +22%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 3? Jun 03 $191 +$45 +23%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 3? Jun 03 $191 −$191 -100%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 2? Jun 02 $208 −$208 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 1? Jun 01 $203 +$48 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 91¢ $23 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 91¢ $44 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 91¢ $100 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 91¢ $23 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 89¢ $97 1h
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 88¢ $40 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 23? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 2h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 23? BUY Yes 84¢ $152 2h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 80¢ $150 25h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 85¢ $160 25h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 80¢ $10 25h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 83¢ $161 25h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 91¢ $23 5d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $27 5d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $86 5d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 91¢ $190 5d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 81¢ $190 5d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $3 5d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $98 5d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 84¢ $191 5d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 85¢ $45 5d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 85¢ $94 5d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 85¢ $51 5d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 81¢ $109 5d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 81¢ $82 5d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 80¢ $110 5d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 80¢ $81 5d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $89 5d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 80¢ $190 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.35 · official $196.35 (match) · 3500 history records