Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5309…3815
other · 12 markets active 9h ago
7.5score
+$702 +173%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$702 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 7 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$224
14 days+$224
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $80 +$224 +281%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $100 +$473 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 31 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 30 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% +$697
other 44% −$1
crypto 11% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+125.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +280.8% +244.6% 100% 100% +244.6%
≤30d 1 +280.8% +244.6% 100% 100% +244.6%
≤90d 5 +149.0% +125.3% 80% 60% +291.6%
all 5 +149.0% +125.3% 80% 60% +291.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +125.3% 60% +291.6%
10% +103.7% 60% +254.1%
15% +84.0% 60% +219.9%
20% +66.0% 60% +188.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.28 · official $189.28 (match) · 19 history records