Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5305…8ace crypto 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$478 (-4%) realized −$477 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%37W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$483
other 8% +$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.5% +7.2% 100% 100% +7.2%
≤30d 1 +18.5% +7.2% 100% 100% +7.2%
≤90d 9 +5.0% -5.0% 78% 22% -7.8%
all 71 -8.6% -17.3% 52% 38% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 38% -13.5%
10% -25.2% 37% -21.8%
15% -32.4% 37% -29.3%
20% -39.0% 35% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses37 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage235d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 94¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 02 $116 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 14 $8 +$9 +122%
HYPE Up or Down on April 8? Apr 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 08 $106 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 27 $33 +$1 +3%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 27 $77 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $8,593 −$9 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $99 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12AM ET Feb 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET Feb 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 07 $168 $0 +0%
Over $3M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 01 $168 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 28 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 12 $22 +$22 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 30 $26 +$26 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 23 $27 +$27 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 16 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 16 $44 +$44 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 07 $30 +$30 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 03 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 03 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 28 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 24? Nov 25 $4 +$1 +37%
XRP Up or Down - November 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 23 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 22 $26 +$26 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 20 $29 −$29 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Nov 19 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Nov 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 16 $8 +$8 +100%
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11PM ET Nov 14 $13 +$13 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 13 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 13 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 11 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 10 $123 −$123 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $113 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $9 3d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 32d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 99¢ $116 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 66d
HYPE Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 100¢ $107 68d
Will BNB reach $700 in March? BUY No 100¢ $106 77d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $601 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $602 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,593 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,595 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,595 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,597 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,597 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,598 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,598 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,600 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,600 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,601 93d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $77 95d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 95d
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $43 101d
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 101d
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 126d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 128d
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 128d
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 128d
Over $20M committed to the Fabric public sale? BUY No 100¢ $168 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.45 · official $112.45 (match) · 139 history records