Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5303…83e6 crypto 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$3,302 (-6%) realized −$3,393 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%174W / 142L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$406est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$595
7 days−$595
14 days−$595
30 days−$2,890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$1,422
crypto 44% −$1,299
other 8% −$1,549
world 0% +$10
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.0% +2.2% 61% 61% -25.9%
≤30d 146 -4.1% -13.3% 57% 57% -23.0%
≤90d 301 -5.4% -14.5% 55% 55% -17.8%
all 316 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 55% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 55% -17.2%
10% -21.8% 55% -25.1%
15% -29.4% 53% -32.4%
20% -36.3% 44% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$170 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized−$3,393
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses174 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$406
Open positions4
Markets (closed)316 / 320
History coverage226d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $50 $144 +$94 (+188%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 23 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$57 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 06 $103 +$64 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 24h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.55 · official $390.55 (match) · 693 history records