Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52fe…c258 crypto 272 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$212 (-3%) realized −$247 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%105W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$217
crypto 34% −$161
other 12% −$326
weather 4% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +8.1% -2.2% 44% 44% -4.6%
≤30d 153 +1.7% -8.0% 42% 42% -12.1%
≤90d 174 -2.0% -11.4% 41% 41% -13.5%
all 263 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 40% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 40% -15.4%
10% -24.3% 40% -23.5%
15% -31.6% 39% -30.9%
20% -38.3% 38% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses105 / 158
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions7
Markets (closed)263 / 272
History coverage145d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 29? Yes 42¢ 54¢ $77 $98 +$21 (+27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $71 $76 +$5 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 50¢ 76¢ $19 $30 +$10 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 30? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 30? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Falcons make a roster change before August? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $117 −$67 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$18 -70%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $42 −$35 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$66 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $67 −$59 -87%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$14 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $46 −$45 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$43 +103%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $36 +$25 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$42 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$41 +99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 29? Jun 29 $100 +$128 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $65 +$34 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $83 +$28 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $42 −$33 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$11 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$6 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $37 +$98 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$35 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $45 +$37 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$24 +228%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $19 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $44 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $98 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $49 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $7 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $42 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $32 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $16 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $7 57m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.42 · official $219.65 (match) · 623 history records