Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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52 0x52fd…f525 crypto 1553 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$275 (-1%) realized −$242 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate80%1219W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,131
7 days−$482
14 days−$938
30 days−$816
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$225
sports 2% −$92
weather 0% −$25
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -7.1% -16.0% 78% 51% -15.3%
≤30d 648 -6.3% -15.2% 82% 34% -13.6%
≤90d 1528 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 36% -10.2%
all 1528 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 36% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 24% -18.8%
15% -28.7% 15% -26.6%
20% -35.7% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1219 / 309
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1528 / 1553
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 66¢ 100¢ $43 $66 +$22 (+52%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 100¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 55¢ 76¢ $28 $39 +$10 (+36%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 78¢ $8 $27 +$19 (+252%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 100¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+163%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jordan 82¢ 100¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$2 (+15%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+122%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Under 92¢ 98¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Frances Tiafoe 69¢ 68¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Jordan leading at halftime? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 60¢ 24¢ $13 $5 −$7 (-59%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? No 88¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 22¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$1 -7%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 +$12 +31%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 +$5 +31%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $7 +$9 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $46 +$7 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $97 −$2 -2%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $80 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$21 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$19 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$17 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $4 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 54m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $5 56m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $8 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $8 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $8 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Under 31¢ $7 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $8 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $11 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $63 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $4 1h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 76¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $8 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $8 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $9 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $11 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $4 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.93 · official $341.99 · 3500 history records