Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
52 0x52f9…e1c7 world 226 markets active 14h ago coverage 344d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$26,562 (+6%) realized +$25,391 · open +$1,171
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%114W / 108L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$1,858per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6,827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,634
7 days+$375
14 days+$4,274
30 days+$7,328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$23,146
politics 3% +$3,146
other 3% +$2,951
sports 3% −$324
finance 1% +$446
crypto 0% +$88
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$731
culture 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.1% -8.6% 48% 29% -8.3%
≤30d 44 +15.7% +4.7% 52% 39% -4.7%
≤90d 79 +29.6% +17.3% 49% 38% -5.2%
all 222 +26.4% +14.4% 51% 45% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 45% -1.9%
10% +3.4% 40% -11.3%
15% -6.6% 36% -19.9%
20% -15.7% 33% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$682 vs −$464 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$6,827
Realized+$25,391
Unrealized+$1,171
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses114 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions4
Markets (closed)222 / 226
History coverage344d
Avg bet$1,858
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $2,000 $3,375 +$1,375 (+69%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $1,181 $1,242 +$61 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $1,200 $1,152 −$48 (-4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1,276 $1,059 −$217 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 +$855 +417%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $7,200 +$830 +12%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 15 $1,050 +$911 +87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16,300 +$1,146 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $500 −$378 -76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $204 +$20 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $5,250 −$1,750 -33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $15,000 +$1,970 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,033 −$49 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,000 +$669 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5,500 +$361 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $14,232 −$1,976 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3,620 −$931 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$96 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,000 −$111 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $530 −$346 -65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $300 +$15 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $507 +$402 +79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,000 −$815 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,000 −$208 -21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $500 +$11 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,225 +$384 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $9,250 +$1,564 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $2,000 +$2,149 +107%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $3,200 −$3,192 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $4,000 −$1,947 -49%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4,250 −$408 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $4,000 +$3,219 +80%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,025 −$360 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $500 +$109 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $33,730 +$3,492 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2,600 −$557 -21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $200 +$167 +83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2,000 +$329 +16%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $459 +$281 +61%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 24 $3,000 +$836 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $3,500 −$427 -12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $1,000 +$506 +51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $500 +$1,879 +376%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $3,500 −$629 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $500 −$47 -9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 15 $3,000 −$599 -20%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1,200 −$306 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $5,000 +$2,381 +48%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $204 +$510 +250%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $1,200 +$53 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 34¢ $200 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,059 15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 16h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $500 19h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 49¢ $500 22h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 32¢ $500 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $500 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $176 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $528 23h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $653 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $4,121 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $273 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $5 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $477 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $1,033 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $247 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $64 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No $122 33h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $500 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $100 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $100 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $1,000 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 41¢ $224 39h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $204 40h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $1,000 40h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $2,000 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $927 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 25¢ $350 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,827.49 · official $6,827.67 (match) · 731 history records