Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52f9…3691 sports 89 markets active 4d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$420 (-11%) realized −$420 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%35W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$349
14 days−$448
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$342
other 7% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 41% -27.5%
≤30d 89 -11.3% -19.8% 39% 39% -20.7%
≤90d 89 -11.3% -19.8% 39% 39% -20.7%
all 89 -11.3% -19.8% 39% 39% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 39% -20.7%
10% -27.5% 39% -28.3%
15% -34.5% 39% -35.2%
20% -40.9% 34% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$37 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses35 / 54
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage9d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $89 −$88 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $76 +$47 +62%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $76 +$54 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $61 +$108 +177%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$34 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 +$119 +194%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $51 +$37 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $51 +$33 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $51 +$73 +143%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $25 +$40 +156%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Madrid: Alba Maria Coromina Boluda vs Marta Mariia Makarova Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
ITF Nice: Mathilde Lollia vs Maria Sara Popa Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $15 +$21 +140%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $25 +$48 +188%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $15 +$15 +101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $35 +$20 +57%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Nigeria leading at halftime? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -62%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 10 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Theo Papamalamis vs Stefan Horia Haita Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $30 +$24 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $40 +$17 +42%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $61 −$61 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $35 +$27 +76%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 10 $45 +$21 +46%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $25 +$24 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $89 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $76 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $76 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $76 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $123 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $76 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $130 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $76 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $76 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $51 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $169 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 26¢ $51 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 29¢ $10 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $51 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $51 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $180 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $51 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 5d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $124 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 40¢ $51 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $51 5d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 17¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records