Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52f9…1fb2 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,375 (-5%) realized −$6,152 · open −$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,525per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1,381est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$17,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6,451
14 days−$6,331
30 days−$6,331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$9,395
other 18% +$1,215
crypto 2% +$1,626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +6.1% -4.0% 52% 52% -18.1%
≤30d 42 +5.8% -4.3% 50% 50% -15.7%
≤90d 42 +5.8% -4.3% 50% 50% -15.7%
all 42 +5.8% -4.3% 50% 50% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 50% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 50% -23.8%
15% -21.8% 50% -31.2%
20% -29.5% 48% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,721) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,813 vs −$2,114 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$17,041
Realized−$6,152
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,381
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2,525
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $13,294 $15,757 +$2,463 (+19%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $1,356 $1,281 −$75 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 0¢ $1,514 $2 −$1,512 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 37¢ 0¢ $1,099 $1 −$1,098 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,497 +$1,196 +80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $921 +$1,309 +142%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,380 +$4,918 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1,132 +$819 +72%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $123 −$121 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $801 +$687 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$16 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$16 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$108 +153%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,485 +$1,651 +66%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $507 −$497 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,714 +$1,997 +116%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,571 −$2,528 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $719 −$711 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $851 −$841 -99%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,054 −$1,248 -61%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15,203 −$14,970 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,040 −$3,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $14,823 +$8,558 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5,553 +$2,571 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,721 +$1,529 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $7,846 −$7,695 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,252 −$3,200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,318 +$1,087 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $68 −$66 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7,523 +$7,706 +102%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3,894 −$3,798 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5,196 −$5,145 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $566 +$339 +60%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,133 +$2,166 +102%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $409 +$1,335 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $1,386 51m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $916 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $1,539 6h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Hokori 16¢ $103 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $2,693 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $2,230 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $433 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $1,064 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $502 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $419 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4,164 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $8,298 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $1,306 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $186 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $512 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $434 3d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Cloud Rising 13¢ $103 3d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 46¢ $27 3d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 44¢ $96 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1,488 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $390 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $411 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $801 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $487 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $671 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $10 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $357 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $916 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,040.89 · official $17,040.89 (match) · 106 history records