Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:31:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52f8…68d9 crypto 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,646 (+1%) realized +$4,644 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%99W / 5L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3,165per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$4,567
sports 7% $0
other 4% +$73
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 103 +0.4% -9.1% 95% 0% -8.3%
all 104 +0.4% -9.1% 95% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$761) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$4,644
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses99 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage174d
Avg bet$3,165
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $37 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, Jun 01 $36 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $29 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 5? Apr 05 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $221 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 5? Apr 05 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 5? Apr 05 $15,455 +$47 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on April 4? Apr 05 $150 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $75 on April 4? Apr 05 $154 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 4? Apr 05 $169 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $15,585 +$157 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 4? Apr 04 $338 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 4? Apr 04 $15,668 +$95 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 3? Apr 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on April 3? Apr 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $125 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on April 3? Apr 04 $284 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on April 3? Apr 04 $15,380 +$155 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? Apr 03 $14,655 +$332 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 2? Apr 03 $282 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 2? Apr 03 $343 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on April 1? Apr 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 1? Apr 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $839 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $13,458 +$177 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 1? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $496 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 1? Apr 01 $586 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 1? Apr 01 $15,902 +$207 +1%
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $35 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $95 on March 31? Apr 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on March 31? Apr 01 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $166 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on March 31? Apr 01 $284 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $75 on March 31? Apr 01 $16,704 +$220 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 31? Mar 31 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on March 31? Mar 31 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $346 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Mar 31 $552 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $761 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $14,554 +$73 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on March 30? Mar 31 $91 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $75 on March 30? Mar 31 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $52 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $37 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 24d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 26d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 29d
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, BUY No 99¢ $36 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 100¢ $148 52d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $15,455 75d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $81 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $500 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $95 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5? BUY No 100¢ $221 75d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 4? BUY No 99¢ $15,585 76d
Will XRP reach $1.45 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $150 76d
Will Solana dip to $75 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $154 76d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $169 76d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $91 76d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 4? BUY No 99¢ $15,668 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $338 76d
Will Solana reach $85 on April 3? BUY No 99¢ $15,380 77d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $284 77d
Will Solana reach $90 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $109 77d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $125 77d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? BUY No 98¢ $628 78d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? BUY No 98¢ $44 78d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? BUY No 98¢ $3,814 78d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? BUY No 98¢ $9,780 78d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 3? BUY No 97¢ $388 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $282 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.58 · official $90.58 (match) · 221 history records