Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52f2…bda9 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$19
politics 29% −$11
sports 4% +$68
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 87 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 1% -9.6%
all 109 +4.2% -5.7% 12% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 6% -9.4%
10% -14.7% 4% -18.1%
15% -23.0% 2% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×11.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage122d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $243 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $252 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $269 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $326 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $329 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $283 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $464 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $256 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $323 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $298 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $246 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $246 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $254 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $567 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $241 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $298 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $238 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $309 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $307 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $318 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $288 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $319 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 7h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 7h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 8h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 4d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 18d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 19d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 20d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 20d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 31d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $252 31d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $252 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.98 · official $82.98 (match) · 341 history records