Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52ee…165e politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% $0
other 19% +$2
economics 18% $0
world 14% −$2
sports 5% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.0%
all 34 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage317d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $34 −$1 -3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $129 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 14 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 06 $127 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $140 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $34 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $0 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $16 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $16 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $22 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $10 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $28 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $28 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $25 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 25d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $23 283d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $129 283d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $23 307d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 17¢ $1 307d
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $11 307d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 307d
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 307d
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $11 307d
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $8 307d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 17¢ $1 307d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.04 · official $38.04 (match) · 97 history records