Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

52 0x52eb…a42a world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$9 (-5%) realized −$19 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-36.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	3	-29.6%	-36.3%	33%	33%	-15.3%
all	3	-29.6%	-36.3%	33%	33%	-15.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.3%	33%	-15.3%
10%	-42.4%	0%	-23.4%
15%	-48.0%	0%	-30.8%
20%	-53.1%	0%	-37.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.35 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage

Net worth$51

Realized−$19

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage91d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	77¢	96¢	$41	$51	+$10 (+24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Apr 23	$37	+$5	+14%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	Apr 07	$12	−$12	-100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Apr 06	$96	−$2	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	77¢	$41	1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY No	88¢	$37	72d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	BUY No	36¢	$5	73d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	BUY No	41¢	$7	73d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY No	93¢	$45	82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	16¢	$15	84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	18¢	$16	84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	24¢	$15	85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	91d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.85 · official $50.85 (match) · 11 history records