Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
52 0x52eb…40f0 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+5%) realized +$127 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$61
crypto 24% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 22 +9.0% -1.4% 55% 55% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 55% +9.2%
10% -10.8% 45% -1.3%
15% -19.5% 32% -10.8%
20% -27.4% 32% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$1,038
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage213d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,099 $1,038 −$61 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 25 Dec 26 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 25 Dec 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 Dec 23 $15 +$23 +150%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 23 $35 +$6 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $14 +$4 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 19? Dec 19 $32 +$7 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 8 Dec 09 $35 +$74 +212%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 8? Dec 09 $1 $0 +23%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 8? Dec 09 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 8 Dec 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Nov 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1PM ET Nov 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Nov 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Nov 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Nov 23 $31 +$38 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 22? Nov 22 $10 +$34 +340%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,000 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $90 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 25 BUY Yes 3¢ $30 180d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 25 BUY Yes 77¢ $10 180d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 SELL Yes 60¢ $38 182d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 SELL Yes 33¢ $41 182d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 BUY Yes 21¢ $10 184d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 BUY Yes 28¢ $35 184d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 2 BUY Yes 24¢ $15 184d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 19? BUY No 78¢ $14 191d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 19? BUY Yes 82¢ $32 191d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 8? BUY No 81¢ $1 197d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 8? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 197d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 8 BUY Yes 32¢ $35 198d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 8 BUY Yes 20¢ $11 198d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 209d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $4 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 211d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,037.93 · official $1,037.93 (match) · 78 history records