Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52e9…b5cd crypto 945 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,192 (-6%) realized −$1,192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%590W / 355L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$187
14 days−$205
30 days−$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,740
other 0% −$3
world 0% −$19
weather 0% +$2
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -17.3% -25.2% 49% 40% -21.4%
≤30d 146 -11.0% -19.5% 57% 49% -19.4%
≤90d 930 -4.1% -13.2% 62% 52% -17.1%
all 945 -3.4% -12.6% 62% 52% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 52% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 37% -24.9%
15% -28.6% 25% -32.2%
20% -35.6% 17% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses590 / 355
Open positions0
Markets (closed)945 / 945
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 945 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$15 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$91 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $60 −$36 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$60 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $79 −$37 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $133 −$84 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $242 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $151 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $18 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $15 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records