Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
52 0x52e9…c2c1 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$4,546 (-24%) realized −$4,546 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$1,790
sports 47% −$829
crypto 2% −$403
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -12.3% -20.7% 44% 44% -2.2%
≤30d 45 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 44% -6.8%
≤90d 45 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 44% -6.8%
all 45 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 44% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 44% -6.8%
10% -28.7% 40% -15.7%
15% -35.6% 38% -23.9%
20% -41.9% 31% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$472 vs −$355 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,546
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage13d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $844 +$669 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,031 −$1,666 -82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $3,620 +$5,613 +155%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $158 −$155 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $114 +$45 +39%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou Jun 18 $99 +$15 +15%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $449 −$446 -99%
ITF Ystad: Linea Bajraliu vs Katerina Tsygourova Jun 18 $335 +$114 +34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 +$233 +226%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$52 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $302 −$295 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $172 −$169 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $262 −$256 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $332 −$327 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $132 +$200 +152%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $410 −$403 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $202 +$208 +103%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,231 −$1,216 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $539 +$501 +93%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $463 +$268 +58%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $321 +$142 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $633 −$315 -50%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $223 −$223 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 13 $340 −$340 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $259 −$259 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 13 $720 −$720 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $213 +$270 +127%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $482 −$223 -46%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $213 +$128 +60%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $400 +$321 +80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $334 +$66 +20%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $106 −$106 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $163 −$163 -100%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 11 $231 −$231 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $223 −$223 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 11 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $262 −$262 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $106 +$228 +216%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $203 +$103 +51%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $170 +$61 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $182 +$199 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $1,513 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $844 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $365 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,031 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $3,620 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $158 38h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $159 38h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 71¢ $114 40h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou SELL Jurij Rodionov 97¢ $114 40h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou BUY Jurij Rodionov 84¢ $99 40h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 73¢ $449 41h
ITF Ystad: Linea Bajraliu vs Katerina Tsygourova BUY Linea Bajraliu 74¢ $335 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $103 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $103 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 49¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY 8¢ $203 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 26¢ $302 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $172 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 24¢ $262 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $332 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $332 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $132 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $410 5d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $411 5d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $202 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,229 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $1,040 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $539 6d
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) SELL Spurs 99¢ $730 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records