Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52e9…4b10 world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$4
other 24% +$2
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 -0.6% -10.0% 35% 5% -10.1%
all 42 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -9.7%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage472d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $40 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $11 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $23 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $42 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $41 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $46 −$5 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 +11%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 11 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $14 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $15 +$1 +5%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $41 15m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $17 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $37 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $40 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $36 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $24 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records