Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52e5…f4dc sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$252 (-38%) realized −$237 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$139
14 days−$139
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$43
other 37% −$102
culture 4% −$24
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -38.4% -44.3% 29% 29% -32.4%
≤30d 34 -38.4% -44.3% 29% 29% -32.4%
≤90d 34 -38.4% -44.3% 29% 29% -32.4%
all 37 -43.4% -48.8% 27% 27% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 27% -35.2%
10% -53.7% 27% -41.4%
15% -58.2% 24% -47.1%
20% -62.3% 19% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$237
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage94d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $54 $39 −$15 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $141 +$61 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -72%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$15 +119%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$6 +37%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $31 −$27 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +234%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $24 −$21 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $203 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $141 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 18h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $3 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $3 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 99¢ $27 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 44¢ $12 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.07 · official $39.07 (match) · 68 history records